Imagine you’ve just signed on for a big VFX project. You’re excited, the script is thrilling, and the client is eager. You sit down with your team to break down the project, and everyone’s buzzing with ideas.
But here’s the catch: no matter how experienced your team is, there’s a sneaky little thing called the planning fallacy waiting to trip you up.
What is Planning Fallacy?
The planning fallacy, a term coined by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979, refers to our tendency to underestimate the time, costs, and risks of future tasks.
In the VFX world, this means you might promise the moon and stars, only to find yourself scrambling to deliver them on time and within budget.
Why does it happen?
We naturally lean towards optimism, especially about our own abilities. We tend to expect the best from the world and remember positive events more than negative ones.
This bias influences our decision-making, often leading us to focus on positive outcomes and overlook potential pitfalls.When planning projects, this optimism skews our judgment.
A classic example of the planning fallacy is the Sydney Opera House. Initially estimated to cost 5 million Australian dollars and be finished by 1963, it ended up costing over 70 million and took more than 14 years to complete.
“It happens because we often underestimate how many little things can go wrong or how complex a task might be.
Even when we have experience doing something similar before, we tend to forget how long it really took us or assume this time will be different (usually quicker!).
Junior artists often fall victim to the planning fallacy when working on They might think, “I’ll finish this paper in a few hours,” but then they get stuck on a particular part, need more time to finish, or face unexpected distractions, turning a quick task into an all-night marathon.
Let’s dive into what happens when you bid on a VFX project. You start with a script breakdown, analyzing every scene to figure out what effects are needed.
Then you estimate the resources, technology,Costs and manpower required for each shot. Despite all this meticulous planning, bids often miss the mark. Why?
Here are a few reasons:
Complexity and Uncertainty: VFX projects are often like navigating uncharted waters. For example, creating a realistic dragon for a fantasy film might sound straightforward, but what happens when the director decides halfway through that the dragon needs to breathe fire in a specific, complex pattern? These changes can throw off your entire timeline.
Client Expectations: Clients want the best work done yesterday. In an attempt to secure the project, you might promise faster delivery than is realistic, hoping you can pull off a miracle.
Competition: The VFX industry is fiercely competitive. Sometimes, underbidding is a strategy to win the job, even if it means taking a hit on profits or working overtime.
Some Real-World VFX Examples:
Remember “Life of Pi”?
The stunning visuals of the tiger and the ocean waves were groundbreaking. But behind the scenes, the VFX company Rhythm & Hues faced immense financial strain. Despite their incredible work, the RnD cost and time overruns led to the studio’s bankruptcy shortly after winning an Oscar for their efforts.
This is probably one example of how even the best in the business can fall victim to the planning fallacy.
And then there’s “Justice League.” The production was already in turmoil when they decided to do extensive reshoots.
The VFX team thought they could handle the integration of new footage smoothly, but reality had other plans. The rushed post-production resulted in some pretty questionable CGI—remember Superman’s mustache debacle?
They just didn’t have enough time to get everything polished. Once again, the planning fallacy struck, leading to a final product that was all over the place.
Avoiding the Planning Fallacy with AI/ML
Implementing these AI/ML strategies helps VFX studios create more accurate bids, manage resources effectively, and deliver high-quality visual effects on time and within budget.
AI analyzes past project data to predict time and cost accurately, providing a realistic baseline for new projects and ML algorithms forecast project timelines and resource needs, continuously updating with real-time data for better accuracy.
The planning fallacy is a tricky beast, especially in the high-stakes world of VFX. But by learning from past experiences, planning for the unexpected, and communicating openly, you can navigate its challenges.
The goal is to deliver stunning visuals on time and within budget, without burning out your team or breaking the bank.
With a bit of wisdom and a lot of teamwork, it’s possible to turn the planning fallacy from a stumbling block into a stepping stone for success.
